Foundation : Rome (if you want to)

Globalization has dramatically reshaped how we understand events and societal patterns, making what you might call "proto-psychohistory" more possible. In the past, civilizations like Rome and China were isolated from one another—each had its own historical trajectory, and the connection between them was either minimal or indirect. But globalization, particularly in the modern era, has interwoven societies in ways that amplify the influence of global events on individual behavior and collective outcomes.

Here’s the key idea: globalization creates a system where events in one part of the world can ripple out to affect others. In the past, this kind of interconnectedness was impossible or rare. But now, with the rise of advanced communication, technology, and the global economy, patterns that might have once seemed isolated—such as stock market crashes, political movements, or cultural trends—are increasingly linked across borders.

The beginning of psychohistory (a term made popular by Isaac Asimov in his "Foundation" series) depends on identifying patterns that predict human behavior on a large scale. In ancient times, this was nearly impossible because societies didn’t have the interconnected systems needed to understand collective behavior globally. But now, globalization allows for the collection and analysis of vast amounts of data, making it easier to spot patterns in human actions across entire populations.

In essence, globalization creates the kind of interconnectivity and data density that could give rise to something similar to psychohistory. The more interconnected societies become, the more the movements of large groups and masses can be modeled and predicted—not by individual decision-making alone, but by emergent behaviors within complex systems.

Globalization, therefore, lays the groundwork for psychohistory by making it easier to understand how small events can lead to massive global outcomes, just as Asimov’s fictional psychohistorians used mathematics and history to predict the future of humanity. The world is more connected than ever, and the effects of one region’s actions can be felt globally, creating patterns that could one day be predictable in ways we could only imagine before.

I maintain that the predictive framework I developed in 1993 accurately anticipated several key global events. These included the 2008 financial crisis, the onset of a global pandemic (predicted within an eight-year margin), and the economic crisis that emerged in March 2025. The model projected a prolonged global depression beginning in 2025, driven by a strategic economic decoupling by China. Notably, this decoupling was modeled not as a standard realignment but as a "scorched earth" maneuver — deliberately self-damaging, yet structurally disruptive to Western economic systems. Concurrently, the model predicted a severe internal consolidation within China, particularly targeting its middle class.

The only major deviation from the model was the failure to predict the September 11, 2001 attacks. However, from a systems-level perspective, this event did not significantly alter the macrohistorical trajectory. It was high-impact in emotional and geopolitical terms, but ultimately consistent with pre-existing global trends.

The model was designed to terminate at the initiation of this decadal crisis period (2025–2035). At the time of its development (1989–1993), I did not possess sufficient historical data or system complexity modeling tools to extend the forecast beyond a major crisis inflection point. Moreover, the act of revealing a prediction introduces observer effects — potentially altering the conditions being predicted. This epistemological limitation remains a central challenge in long-range historical modeling.

Falsifiable Tests for the “Scorched Earth” Hypothesis (2025–2030)

To evaluate whether the model's core assumptions hold, the following tests can be applied:

Intentional Supply Chain Disruption
Prediction: China restricts exports of critical materials (e.g., rare earths, pharma precursors, solar tech) even when it causes domestic harm.
Falsifiable If: China instead prioritizes restoring or expanding these exports to sustain its own growth.
Suppression of the Middle Class
Prediction: Sharp increases in property seizures, punitive social credit enforcement, or anti-consumerist campaigns.
Falsifiable If: China bolsters middle-class consumption or protects private assets.
Attacks on Western Infrastructure
Prediction: Evidence of cyber or physical disruption of Western logistics, food systems, or energy grids linked to Chinese state actors.
Falsifiable If: Such actions are absent, or China maintains clean separation from subversive acts.
Decoupling Without Replacement
Prediction: China exits or sidelines Western-led economic forums (WTO, IMF) without building new global institutions.
Falsifiable If: China actively promotes an alternative multilateral architecture (e.g., BRICS-led frameworks).
Refusal to Stimulate Domestic Demand
Prediction: China resists reflation tools despite recessionary signals.
Falsifiable If: The state reverts to heavy stimulus, infrastructure booms, or broad consumer support measures.
Strategic Military Escalation Despite Trade Risks
Prediction: China escalates in Taiwan or the South China Sea even when it predictably undermines its own trade flows.
Falsifiable If: Escalation remains calibrated to avoid economic fallout.

Falsifiable Tests for the “Strategic Decoupling” Hypothesis (2025–2030)

Psychohistory is not about certainty, but about weighted probabilities. It concerns itself with identifying outcomes that are structurally necessary across a range of possible strategies. In this context, the dominant scenario involves China pursuing a scorched earth–style decoupling as a primary strategic posture. However, the model does allow for a low-probability middle path: a controlled or selective scorched earth, wherein China preserves key domestic systems while inflicting calibrated damage externally.

To test the robustness of this broader model, the following falsifiable predictions should be actively monitored:

1. Intentional Supply Chain Disruption with Parallel Development
Prediction: China restricts exports of critical goods (e.g., rare earths, pharmaceutical precursors, solar components) while simultaneously developing internal substitutes and alternative trade frameworks.
Falsifiable If: China instead reinforces integration with Western markets and avoids building parallel supply architectures.

2. Middle-Class Containment Paired with Ideological Repositioning
Prediction: Increasing signs of asset controls, constrained social mobility, and ideological campaigns discouraging consumerism — reframed as moral or national duty.
Falsifiable If: China's policy clearly favors middle-class empowerment and expansion of consumer privileges.

3. Hybrid Disruption of Western Infrastructure
Prediction: Covert or unattributed disruptions target Western logistics, agriculture, energy, or data infrastructure — often alongside disinformation or cyber warfare.
Falsifiable If: Disruptions are absent or decisively dissociated from Chinese state or proxy activity.

4. Decoupling with Replacement Institutions
Prediction: China withdraws from or sidelines Western-led institutions (e.g., WTO, IMF), while actively advancing replacements (e.g., BRICS+, Belt and Road monetary systems, digital currency clearinghouses).
Falsifiable If: No parallel institutions are developed or existing ones are not meaningfully empowered.

5. Internal Austerity over External Stimulus
Prediction: China avoids reflationary policies even amid slowdown, focusing instead on centralized austerity, production quotas, or strategic stockpiling.
Falsifiable If: The state launches large-scale consumer stimulus or infrastructure booms aimed at restoring growth.

6. Military Posturing that Risks Economic Fallout, Offset by Strategic Alignments
Prediction: China increases military pressure in areas like Taiwan or the South China Sea, even at clear economic cost, while seeking compensatory alignments with resource or energy states (e.g., Russia, Iran).
Falsifiable If: Military behavior is clearly constrained to avoid economic blowback or global reaction.

Near-Certain Outcomes Across Both Strategic Branches (2025–2030)

1. The Collapse of Global Economic Predictability
Convergent Result: Whether China pursues all-out disruption or a more managed divergence, the global economy will become structurally unpredictable — marked by volatility in trade flows, currency shifts, and supply chains. Trust in global financial norms will deteriorate.

Why Inevitable: The mere initiation of systemic decoupling, scorched or otherwise, introduces long-lasting uncertainty.

2. End of American-Led Globalization (1990–2020 model)
Convergent Result: The era of seamless, U.S.-anchored globalization will conclusively end. Whether China burns the old system down or builds a parallel one, the post-Cold War global order dies.

Why Inevitable: China's exit from the Western-centric system breaks the core assumption of interdependence. Multilateralism won't disappear, but it will fracture irreparably.

3. Realignment of Resource and Security Alliances
Convergent Result: States will reposition toward resource access and regional security, forming new energy, tech, and food blocs.

Why Inevitable: No matter the pace or style of decoupling, countries must hedge against instability. Expect new BRICS+ alignments, Gulf–Asian corridors, African–Chinese logistics deals, etc.

4. Technological Bifurcation (Digital Iron Curtain)
Convergent Result: A hardened divide between two technological ecosystems — one led by China (AI, currency, surveillance), one by the West.

Why Inevitable: Even in a controlled split, digital infrastructure is ideologically and strategically incompatible. Both sides will firewall core tech.

5. Middle-Class Squeeze Globally (Not Just China)
Convergent Result: The global middle class — especially in developed nations — will face declining security, purchasing power, and mobility.

Why Inevitable: Both decoupling strategies disrupt credit access, job stability, and cheap imports, which are the foundations of middle-class prosperity.

6. Surge in Domestic Surveillance and Authoritarian Drift
Convergent Result: Both East and West will expand internal surveillance, censorship, and emergency powers, regardless of the external trigger.

Why Inevitable: Governments will justify controls as necessary responses to economic instability, sabotage threats, or ideological subversion.

7. Psychological Crisis of the West
Convergent Result: Western societies will face a crisis of identity, legitimacy, and future-orientation, with trust in institutions and democracy plunging.

Why Inevitable: The Western post-Cold War narrative was built on permanent growth and liberal hegemony — both now visibly eroding, regardless of the path China takes.

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Photography with Joe