PROPANDA AD LIES

Claim	Stated Odds	Reality / Notes
Skiing injury	1 in 334	Recreational skiing injury rates in Canada: ~1 in 446 skier‑days (PubMed 2020, 2.24 injuries per 1,000 skier‑days). Likely exaggerated.
Being pickpocketed	1 in 3,534	No official Canadian national data; urban crime reports suggest much lower risk per day. Likely chosen for rhetorical effect.
“Going under” (death)	1 in 10,386	Canada’s crude death rate ~8–9 per 1,000 per year → ~1 in 111 per year. The ad’s number may reflect annualized low‑risk activity or lifetime probabilities of sudden death. Likely not precise.
Getting shingles	1 in 3	Accurate lifetime risk according to Canadian public health sources.

Observations:

1. Shingles odds are the only fully credible figure.

2. The other three odds—skiing injury, pickpocketed, and “going under”—appear rounded or dramatized for advertising contrast.

3. The ad uses a rhetorical device: comparing rare everyday risks with a common health risk (shingles) to encourage vaccination.

4. Timeframe mismatch is important: some odds are per day, some per lifetime. The ad ignores this for simplicity.